The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), in real terms, registered a year-on-year change of 1.4% in the 1st quarter of 2024, after having increased by 2.1% in the previous quarter, announced the National Institute of Statistics (INE), this Tuesday. The quarter-on-quarter growth was 0.7%. 

In comparison with the same period last year, "the positive contribution of domestic demand to the year-on-year change in GDP decreased in the 1st quarter, with a slowdown in investment and private consumption". 

"The contribution of net external demand to the year-on-year change in GDP was zero, after having been positive in the previous quarter, with exports of goods and services in volume having slowed down and imports of goods and services having accelerated slightly", can be read in the INE report. 

In comparison with the 4th quarter of 2023, that is, quarter-on-quarter, GDP increased by 0.7% in volume, a rate identical to that observed in the previous quarter. 

"The contribution of net external demand to the quarter-on-quarter change in GDP became positive in the 1st quarter, reflecting the slowdown in imports of goods and services that was more pronounced than that of exports of goods and services. The positive contribution of domestic demand decreased, with a reduction in investment and an acceleration in private consumption", explains the INE. 

What were the forecasts? 

The Forum for Competitiveness estimates that the Portuguese economy grew between 1% and 1.3% in the first quarter of the year compared to the same period last year and between 0.3% and 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, according to the economic outlook note released in April.

In turn, the CIP/ISEG Barometer estimates a year-on-year growth in GDP of between 1.7% and 2.1% in the first quarter, and 1.1% to 1.5% quarter-on-quarter, due to the growth in production in industry, construction and services.

NECEP - Católica Lisbon Forecasting Lab predicts an expansion of GDP of 1.2% in the first three months of the year compared to the same period of 2023 and 0.5% quarter-on-quarter.

The Portuguese economy grew by 2.3% in the whole of 2023, with the contribution of domestic demand, although at a lower level than in 2022, with a slowdown in private consumption and investment last year, according to INE data.

In the 2024-2028 Stability Programme, submitted by the Government to parliament, the Ministry of Finance predicts (in a scenario of unchanging policies) a growth of the Portuguese economy of 1.5% this year, in line with that projected in the State Budget for 2024 and one tenth below the macroeconomic forecasts of the Democratic Alliance (AD) in the electoral programme.

[News updated at 09:40]

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