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OECD sees Portuguese economy growing 1.6% this year and inflation at 2.4%
The OECD is more optimistic about the economy and inflation rate in Portugal, forecasting a GDP growth of 1.6% in 2024 and a slowdown in price increases to 2.4%, it was announced today.
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Economia OCDE
According to the economic forecasts of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the growth of the Portuguese economy will slow down from 2.3% in 2023 to 1.6% in 2024 (when it previously predicted 1.2%), recovering to 2% in 2025.
The OECD's forecast is one tenth higher than that registered by the Ministry of Finance, in the Stability Programme 2024-2028, which in a scenario of unchanging policies predicts growth of 1.5% this year, in line with that projected in the State Budget for 2024 (OE2024).
Among the main national and international institutions, the Bank of Portugal is the most optimistic, expecting growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 2%, the Public Finance Council 1.6%, the International Monetary Fund 1.7%, while the European Commission predicts growth of 1.2%.
The Paris-based organisation cut its inflation rate projection to 2.4% this year and to 2% in 2025, against the 3.3% and 2.4%, respectively, projected previously, due to stable energy prices and the slowdown in labour demand.
"A tight labour market and falling inflation are supporting real wage growth and private consumption, and the implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP) will boost investment", considers the OECD.
Thus, despite pointing out that modest global growth and high uncertainty are holding back exports and investment, it believes that this scenario will "disappear as external demand" increases.
The OECD considers that the fiscal policy in Portugal should become less restrictive in 2024, predicting that the budget surplus will decrease from 1.2% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2023 to 0.3% in 2024.
"The implementation of the RRP, the reduction in personal income tax and the increase in social benefits will support activity and will compensate for the gradual elimination of support measures to mitigate the inflationary shock in 2024", it states.
At the same time, it notes that the minimum wage increased by 7.9% in 2024 and expects a new increase of 4.3% in 2025, probably increasing household income.
However, "the increase in labour costs could hold back employment with low wages and the large public investments planned", while "the permanent reductions in personal income tax could aggravate inflationary pressures", while interest rates will continue to weigh on activity.
The OECD predicts that the public debt ratio will fall from 99.1% in 2023 to 95.7% this year and to 92.5% in 2025.
Read Also: OECD improves global growth estimate to 3.1% (Portuguese version)
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