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Oxford Economics predicts new rate increase by the National Bank of Angola
The Oxford Economics consultancy anticipated today that the National Bank of Angola (BNA) will again raise the interest rate by 0.5 percentage points at its July meeting, to contain rising inflation.
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Economia BNA
In a research note sent to investors on Angola's rising inflation, and which Lusa has seen, Oxford Economics says "inflation is set to rise further to near 32% by end-H1, after which a more stable kwanza exchange rate should help moderate inflation to 23% by December".
The analysts write in the note that "the decision to tighten policy comes on the back of persistent monthly increases in the consumer price index and money supply".
The BNA's response last week, when it raised interest rates, "reflects the central bank's view that inflation is close to peaking, and its concerns about the negative impact on consumer spending trends".
On Friday, the Angolan central bank revised its inflation forecast for this year upwards to 23.4%, mainly due to the increase in the price of diesel and urban public transport, as well as "inflationary inertia".
"We expect prices to continue to rise, hence this upward revision of inflation, but naturally for this not to happen, it is necessary for us to continue with the efforts that have been made on the demand side to control the liquidity in circulation in the economy, which is the responsibility of the BNA," its governor, Manuel Tiago Dias, said at the time.
The BNA on Friday decided to increase its key rate from 19% to 19.5%, and the interest rate on the Standing Liquidity Lending Facility from 19.5% to 20.5%, in an attempt to curb inflation, decided to keep the interest rate on the Standing Liquidity Absorption Facility at 18.5% and to increase the coefficient of compulsory reserves in national currency from 20% to 21%.
Inflation in Angola rose again in April, for the 12th consecutive month, registering a year-on-year change of 28.02%, a maximum of almost seven years, according to the National Institute of Statistics (INE).
Read Also: Banco central angolano sobe taxa diretora e de cedência de liquidez (Portuguese version)
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